Midterms 2022: Current polls for the US midterm elections
In the 2022 midterm elections, the United States will re-elect its Congress. Here you will find the most important surveys.
USA – On November 8, the midterms will take place in the USA . The members of the House of Representatives, around a third of the senators and numerous governors are newly elected.
For a long time it seemed as if there would be a red wave at the Midterms 2022. Because the Republicans looked like the clear winners in all polls until recently, with clear majorities predicted in both chambers of Congress . President Joe Biden and the Democrats seemed threatened with a clear defeat.
In the meantime the situation changed. It looked as if the Democrats could celebrate a partial success and at least hold the Senate . In the meantime, however, the tide has turned again in the Senate. The current surveys, which we present in our survey ticker, hardly allow a clear picture in the Senate at the moment.
The “FiveThirtyEight” portal recalculates the probabilities every day. So how will the midterms of 2022 end?
- Senate : Republicans have a 55% chance of winning the Senate majority
- House of Representatives : Republicans have an 85% chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives
- Source: FiveThirtyEight , as of 11/06/2022
Midterms 2022 in the USA: 35 seats in the Senate are up for election
35 Senate seats will be redistributed in the midterm elections. The resignation of Republican Jim Inhofe in Oklahoma adds a special election to the 34 regular elections. When it comes to the question of whether the Democrats or the Republicans will have the majority in the Senate, the results in ten states play a particularly important role . It can be assumed that the remaining states will remain in democratic or republican hands.
Midterms 2022: US midterm election schedule
| meeting | occurrence |
|---|---|
| November 08, 2022 | US Midterms 2022 |
| December 06, 2022 | Georgia: possible runoff |
| December 10, 2022 | Louisiana: possible runoff |
| January 03, 2023 | New US Congress convenes |
According to the polls , Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are the most hotly contested . Whoever wins two of those three states should also have control of the Senate. A 50-50 stalemate is still enough for the Democrats as Vice President Kamala Harris , in her role as Senate Speaker, has the deciding vote in this case.
Midterm elections USA: The ten most exciting duels in the Senate
In Pennsylvania, Democratic candidate John Fetterman is still just ahead in the polls, but Republican Mehmet Oz has recently caught up in the polls. In Georgia, Democrat Raphael Warnock was long ahead of Republican opponent Herschel Walker, but Walker is now just ahead of the average in all polls. However, Warnock sees two current surveys from the New York Times and Siena College as well as from Marist College, both of which are particularly reliable. So it remains exciting. In Nevada, Republican candidate Adam Laxalt has gradually increased his lead over Catherine Cortez Masto in recent weeks.
Should the Democrats lose their majority in the Senate, the Republicans are likely to make it almost impossible for President Joe Biden to govern.
Polls for the Senate – Georgia
| Raphael Warnock (D) | Herschel Walker (R) |
|---|---|
| 49.0% | 49.5% |
Polls for the Senate – Nevada
| Catherine Cortez Masto (D) | Adam Laxalt (R) |
|---|---|
| 44.0% | 50.0% |
Polls for the Senate – Pennsylvania
| John Fetterman (D) | Mehmet Oz (R) |
|---|---|
| 49.2% | 48.8% |
Other states deciding the outcome of the Senate election at Midterms 2022 are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. Here, based on the surveys, there could at least be some surprises. Republicans are particularly hoping for success in Arizona, where Trump candidate Blake Masters wants to overthrow former astronaut Mark Kelly. Democrats are hoping for a turnaround in Ohio and Wisconsin.
Polls for the Senate – Arizona
| Mark Kelly (D) | Blake Masters (R) |
|---|---|
| 50.1% | 48.1% |
Polls for the Senate – Colorado
| Michael Bennett (D) | Joe O’Dea (R) |
|---|---|
| 52.5% | 44.4% |
Polls for the Senate – Florida
| Val Demings (D) | Marco Rubio (R) |
|---|---|
| 44.2% | 53.9% |
Polls for the Senate – New Hampshire
| Maggie Hassan (D) | Donald Bolduc (R) |
|---|---|
| 51.1% | 47.2% |
Polls for the Senate – North Carolina
| Cheri Beasley | Ted Budd (R) |
|---|---|
| 46.7% | 51.5% |
Polls for the Senate – Ohio
| Tim Ryan (D) | JD Vance (R) |
|---|---|
| 47.2% | 52.8% |
Polls for the Senate – Wisconsin
| Mandela Barnes (D) | Ron Johnson (R) |
|---|---|
| 47.0% | 50.0% |
(Source: FiveThirtyEight )
Midterms 2022: Election to the House of Representatives
All 435 seats are up for election in the US House of Representatives election. Members of Parliament are elected by direct vote in their constituency for two years. Since the 2022 midterm election will be the first to use the 2020 United States Census seat allocation, all electoral districts have been rebalanced. The Democrats currently have a majority of 220 seats, the Republicans hold 212 seats, and three seats are vacant. All polls suggest Republicans will win a majority here.
Midterms 2022: gubernatorial election
In the midterm elections in the USA, the governor posts will also be filled in 36 states. There are also two well-known politicians at the start who are striving for higher things in the future. Ron DeSantis, whom many already see as Donald Trump’s successor , is unlikely to be victorious in Florida. In California, the Democratic hopeful Gavin Newsome remains unchallenged. In Arizona, meanwhile, a head-to-head race between Trump candidate Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs is looming.
Gubernatorial Elections – Arizona
| Katie Hobbs (D) | Kari Lake (R) |
|---|---|
| 49.2% | 50.8% |
Gubernatorial Election – Florida
| Charlie Grist (D) | Ron DeSantis (R) |
|---|---|
| 43.1% | 54.9% |
Gubernatorial Elections – California
| Gavin Newsom (D) | Brian Dahle (R) |
|---|---|
| 60.6% | 39.4% |
(Source: FiveThirtyEight )
However, the decision on majorities in Congress will not be made until election day. You can find out how this works and when the results will be published in our timetable . The events on election night can be seen live on TV and in the live stream . (cs)
Source: https://www.fr.de/politik/umfragen-zwischenwahlen-midterms-2022-usa-alle-aktuellen-91845834.html
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